By: Moty Levanon Date: January 25, 2026
Overview
As we step into the final week of January 2026, the currency markets are showing signs of a significant structural shift. While the financial headlines remain dominated by Gold’s historic rally toward psychological resistance levels, a compelling price action structure has matured on the GBP/USD weekly chart.
This setup isn't just about a single pair; it’s a reflection of the broader "Regime Change" I’ve been discussing—where traditional correlations are breaking down, and price action is the only objective map we have left.
The Technical Setup: A Textbook Weekly Variation
On the weekly timeframe, GBP/USD has printed a clear Potential Three Methods variation.
The Impulse: Following a strong bullish leg, the market entered a period of healthy "digestion".
The Consolidation: We observed a three-bar pullback that failed to penetrate the initial impulse’s low, signaling that sell-side liquidity was insufficient to turn the tide.
The Confirmation: The most recent weekly candle has closed green, re-asserting buyer dominance and suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
In high-timeframe trading, these structures represent a "breather" before the next expansion. When the Weekly chart speaks, it’s usually worth listening.
Fundamental Tailwinds: Why the Pound?
The technical structure is well-supported by the current macroeconomic environment of early 2026:
Monetary Divergence: While the Federal Reserve grapples with persistent fiscal pressures, the Bank of England (BoE) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance due to UK-specific inflation drivers. This yield support is providing the fundamental "floor" for the Pound.
The Safe-Haven Rotation: As Gold continues its re-pricing as a standalone global currency, we are seeing capital rotate out of the US Dollar and into "Hard Assets" and secondary majors like the GBP.
Global Trade Dynamics: Early 2026 has been marked by a shift in global trade flows. The Pound is increasingly viewed as a stable alternative amidst the volatility seen in other G7 currencies.
Strategic Conclusion
The convergence of the Weekly Three Methods and the ongoing Gold-driven regime change suggests a bullish bias for the GBP/USD in the coming weeks.
However, as I always tell my students: The Map is not the Road. While the structure is highly favorable, execution requires discipline and a close eye on the daily timeframes for precise entry points.
POST-TRADE FOLLOW UP: THE PATTERN IN ACTION
Date: January 23, 2026
Markets rarely wait for the slow-footed. As analyzed above, the Rising Three Methods on the Weekly timeframe provided a high-conviction signal.
Shortly after publication, the market broke the consolidation range, surging 100+ pips to the upside. This validates the "regime change" thesis and the importance of high-timeframe structural anchors.
Legal Disclaimer
The information provided in this post is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading forex and financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance, including the patterns identified in charts, is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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