Sunday, February 1, 2026
Author: Moty Levanon
Ethereum is currently undergoing a critical reassessment phase after the previously discussed Shark structure failed to confirm.
Price did not hold inside the projected PRZ zone and continued lower, invalidating the harmonic reversal thesis. This shifts the analytical focus away from pattern-based expectations and toward pure market structure, volume distribution, and liquidity behavior.
I am leaving the original analysis intact for transparency. What follows is an updated, structure-driven outlook.
Structural Context
ETH has now printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe, confirming short-term bearish control.
However, the current decline is approaching a high-interest area where historically significant trading activity has occurred.
Rather than searching for a specific harmonic formation, the priority is now:
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Acceptance or rejection inside high-volume zones
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Evidence of seller exhaustion
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Reaction quality, not pattern symmetry
Volume Profile Perspective
The visible range volume profile shows a major high-volume node between approximately:
2600 – 3000
This zone represents a long-term area of agreement where large quantities of ETH previously exchanged hands.
Key implications:
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Price entering this zone often slows
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Large participants historically transact here
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Directional resolution tends to follow absorption
Below this area, volume thins considerably, increasing downside velocity risk if acceptance occurs.
Above this area, reclaiming the 2900–3000 region would place price back into value.
In simple terms:
This zone is a decision zone, not an automatic reversal zone.
Market Behavior Assessment
Recent candles show strong downside expansion, which suggests:
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Liquidations and forced selling
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Momentum-driven selling rather than distribution
This matters because forced selling phases often end abruptly once liquidity pockets are consumed.
At the same time:
No meaningful bullish displacement or high-volume absorption candle has appeared yet.
This keeps the market in bearish-to-neutral status, not bullish.
Updated Scenarios (Next 2–4 Weeks)
Scenario 1 – Range Stabilization (Base Case)
Price stabilizes between 2550 – 2850 and builds acceptance.
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Structure: Sideways / basing
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Signal to watch: Long lower wicks, declining sell volume
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Probability: 45%
Scenario 2 – Deeper Liquidity Sweep
Failure to hold 2600 leads to a fast push toward 2350–2450 before stabilization.
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Structure: Expansion then base
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Would still fit a larger corrective phase
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Probability: 35%
Scenario 3 – Early Reversal
Strong reaction from current zone, reclaiming 2900–3000 quickly.
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Requires impulsive bullish candles and volume expansion
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Probability: 20%
What Would Shift Bias Bullish
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Daily close back above 3000
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Bullish displacement candle
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Rising volume on green candles
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Holding higher low on pullback
Until these appear, upside should be treated as corrective.
What Would Increase Bearish Risk
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Acceptance below 2500
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Weak bounce attempts with low volume
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Continued expansion in sell-side delta
Strategic Framing
This is no longer a pattern trade environment.
It is a location and reaction environment.
Patience > prediction.
Let price prove acceptance before assigning directional bias.
Legal Disclaimer
The information provided in this review is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred from the use of this information.
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