February 3, 2026
Author: Moty Levanon
Crude Oil (WTI) is currently forming a well-defined Bullish Bat pattern on the hourly (H1) timeframe. The structure began with a significant rally from the $60.20 level (Point X) to a peak of $66.15 (Point A). Following this, the price executed a 50% retracement to $63.70 (Point B) and a subsequent lower high at $65.80 (Point C).
The price recently descended into the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) at Point D, which aligns with the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level near $60.90. As of February 3, 2026, the price is trading around $62.03, showing signs of a bullish reaction from this structural floor. While the fanning moving averages still indicate lingering downward pressure from the recent 5.5% plunge, the stabilization at Point D suggests that the "peace pivot" sell-off may be reaching exhaustion.
Fundamental Context: Geopolitical De-escalation and OPEC+ Policy
The recent price volatility is driven by a shift in the global risk landscape:
"Peace Pivot": Oil prices tumbled as the U.S. and Iran signaled a readiness to begin formal diplomatic talks in Turkey, significantly cooling the "war premium" that supported prices in January.
OPEC+ Output Freeze: On February 1, 2026, the core OPEC+ members reaffirmed their decision to keep production steady through March, pausing any planned output increases due to seasonally weaker demand.
2026 Bearish Outlook: Despite short-term stabilization, the long-term forecast remains cautious. The EIA and other agencies project a global oil surplus of approximately 3.8 million barrels per day in 2026, with WTI expected to average around $52 per barrel for the year.
Dollar Strength: A surge in the U.S. dollar on February 2 exacerbated the decline in oil prices, as the currency appreciation reinforced the impacts of geopolitical de-escalation.
Scenario Analysis and Probabilities
| Scenario | Technical Target | Probability |
| Bullish Reversal (Bat Success) | Rebound from $61.00 toward $63.50 and $65.00 | 60% |
| Sideways Consolidation | Fluctuation between $60.50 and $62.50 to absorb supply | 30% |
| Bearish Breakdown | A close below $60.00, targeting $58.50 or lower | 10% |
The 60% probability for a rebound is supported by the technical alignment of the 0.886 PRZ with the psychological support at $60.00–$61.00.
Legal Disclaimer
The information provided in this review is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading commodities involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred from the use of this information.
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