February 5, 2026
Author: Moty Levanon
Bitcoin (BTC) has intensified its descent, registering a daily low of $70,034 earlier today, February 5, 2026. This price action represents a classic "Liquidity Sweep" below our previously identified 1.13 Fibonacci extension ($71,283) of the weekly Bullish Shark pattern.
Technically, a dip slightly below the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) is common in harmonic trading to "flush out" late longs before a potential reversal. The $70,610 level is currently acting as a structural magnet, coinciding with the high-volume support nodes from April 2025. For the Bullish Shark to remain valid, the weekly candle must close above the $71,000–$72,000 range. A sustained breakdown below $70,000 would likely trigger a "capitulation acceleration" toward the 1.27 extension at $68,500.
Fundamental Context: Extreme Fear and the "Underwater" ETF Basis
The drop to $70,610 has pushed the market into a state of Extreme Fear, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting to 15—a level historically associated with major local bottoms.
The ETF "Pain Threshold": Recent data reveals that the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors is approximately $90,200. At $70,034, the "institutional class" is now over 22% underwater. Historically, such deep drawdowns for the majority of holders often lead to a "forced selling" climax or a sharp V-shaped recovery as institutional buyers "average down".
Institutional Flow Divergence: While Grayscale and 21Shares continue to see outflows, BlackRock and Fidelity have maintained relatively stable holdings, suggesting that the "long-term believers" are absorbing the supply from yield-chasers and basis-traders.
Macro Pressure: The stronger-than-expected U.S. dollar and the delay in Fed rate cuts continue to weigh on Bitcoin, but the $2.6 billion in recent liquidations suggests that the "leverage flush" is nearly complete.
Updated Scenario Analysis (Refining Point C)
| Scenario | Technical Target | Probability |
| Successful Sweep & Bounce | Weekly close >$72k, targeting a relief rally to $81k | 45% |
| Consolidation at the Floor | Trading between $69k and $73k for several days | 40% |
| The "Trapdoor" Effect | Breakdown below $68k, targeting the $58k–$60k range | 15% |
The 45% reversal probability remains the base case, as $70,034 aligns with the "exhaustion zone" where forced sellers typically run out of ammunition, especially given the extreme fear levels.
Legal Disclaimer
The information provided in this review is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred from the use of this information.
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